Berlusconi's allies poised to hold sway

 

By Guy Dinmore in Rome

Published: April 15 2008 03:00 | Last updated: April 15 2008 03:00

Silvio Berlusconi last night capped a remarkable return to power with a relatively decisive margin, but whether Italy will witness a new era of political stability remains in doubt.

Becoming prime minister for the third time, Mr Berlusconi, 71, heads a centre-right coalition that has lost the moderating voice of centrist Catholics who ran separately in this election. He owes much of the credit to his rightwing allies, who have helped make his victory possible.

As he returns to power, the billionaire media mogul will be faced with a global economic downturn that is even more accentuated in Italy - just as when he last entered office in 2001.

Protectionist-sounding statements from his allies, highlighted by their opposition to the takeover of Italy's flag carrier Alitalia by Air France-KLM, suggest that his neo-liberal market policies might take a backseat in favour of more direct government intervention.

Mr Berlusconi campaigned on his usual platform of cuts in taxes and public spending, increased public security and a tough line on immigration.

"People are happy to have a majority and the potential for clear government and more stability," commented Geoff Andrews, political scientist and author. "But Italy remains unstable and even ungovernable."

Mr Andrews noted the powers of organised crime and Mr Berlusconi's own trials and investigations regarding his business empire. "Berlusconi's legacy is a culture of illegality. Illegality has become the norm."

In his last interview before the elections, Mr Berlusconi attacked the high interest rate policy of the European Central Bank and said he would take a more statist approach to the economy.

On foreign policy, a centre-right government would lead Italy back into a closer relationship with the US and Israel while backing more serious sanctions against Iran.

Both houses of parliament will have fewer factions - Italians have showed themselves to be tired with the multiplicity of micro-parties by voting overwhelmingly for the two main blocs.

However, Mr Berlusconi's age and the issue of his succession will in all probability exaggerate differences within his People of Freedom party and with coalition allies. Some of Mr Berlusconi's aides say he has set his sights on the presidency, although Giorgio Napolitano, the leftwing incumbent, has five years to serve.

Gianfranco Fini, leader of the rightwing National Alliance, is seen by many in his party as the logical successor to Mr Berlusconi. In the meantime, he sits uncomfortably alongside Umberto Bossi, leader of the Northern League, in the ruling coalition.

Mr Bossi, who suffered a severe stroke in 2004, has had a difficult relationship with Mr Berlusconi and was responsible for bringing down their first coalition government in 1994.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008